Tag Archives: Vermont

Bullish on mobile homes

It seems that the wide-ranging portfolio of Warren Buffett, investment sage and one of the world’s richest men, includes a mobile-home empire that’s coming under fair-housing scrutiny.buffett1

That’s Clayton Homes Inc., the leading maker of mobile homes, which Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought in 2003. A Clayton affiliate is also the leading lender to purchasers of mobile homes.

Now comes an investigative series by the Seattle Times, the Center for Public Integrity and BuzzFeed alleging exploitative lending to minorities, not to mention racist employment practices. One of the key predatory-lending allegations is summed up by this sentence, the series’ third article published the other day:

“The company’s in-house lender, Vanderbilt Mortgage, charges minority borrowers substantially higher rates, on average than their white counter parts. In fact, federal data shows that Vanderbilt typically charges black people who make over $75,000 a year slightly more than white people who make only $35,000.”

To this and the series’ accusations launched beginning in April, Clayton issued a “categorical” denial in a press release dated Dec. 26, stating, among other things:

“(I)n 2015, for borrowers with credit scores less than 600 who chose to purchase a home-only placed on private land, and borrowed less than $50,000, the average note rate from Vanderbilt was the same for white and non-white borrowers. For borrowers with credit scores greater than 720, the note rate for non-white borrowers was 0.07 percent less than for white borrowers.”

Buffett stands by the company and told shareholders this past spring that he “makes no apologies whatsoever for Clayton’s lending terms.”buffett2

Most of the alleged depredations highlighted in the articles have taken place in the south and on native American reservations in the Southwest. Clayton does have a presence in Vermont. The company’s website lists two sales outlets in the state – in Montpelier and White River Junction – out of more than a thousand dealerships nationwide.

If the series’ allegations have legs, one might expect they’ll prompt a federal investigation or a reverse-redlining lawsuit of the sort that was lodged against Wells Fargo for preying on minority home-buyers in Baltimore and Memphis in the years leading up to the housing bust. 

Not so easy

A key goal of affirmatively furthering fair housing (AFFH), as it’s envisioned playing out around the country, is to break up concentrations of poverty and to promote socioeconomic and racial integration. That means ensuring opportunities for lower-income people and racial minorities to live in wealthier, “high opportunity” neighborhoods with access to jobs, goods schools and public services.

Two ways to facilitate those opportunities:

  • Promote regional mobility among people with Section 8 vouchers, enabling them to leave high-poverty areas and move into more well-to-do communities. This can require increasing their housing allowance so that they can afford higher suburban rents.
  • Build affordable, multifamily rental housing in those same, heretofor exclusive neighborhoods.

Both of these approaches deserve consideration around here, as Vermonters contemplate how to make their communities more socioeconomically inclusive. Meanwhile, it’s interesting to see how they’ve played out in an entirely different environment: metropolitan Baltimore.Baltimore1

First, some background: Baltimore has a long history of racial segregation (click here for a trenchant account), and in the mid-1990s, the Department of Housing and Urban Development was sued by city residents (Thompson vs. HUD) for its failure to eliminate segregation in public housing. In 2005, a federal judge found that HUD had violated the Fair Housing Act by maintaining existing patterns of impoverishment and segregation in the city and by failing to achieve “significant desegregation” in the Baltimore region.

Seven years later, a court-approved settlement resolved the case in a way that anticipated the AFFH rule that HUD issued this past summer.

The settlement called on HUD to continue the Baltimore Mobility Program, begun in 2003 in an earlier settlement phase. The program has provided housing vouchers to more than 2,600 families to move out of poor, segregated neighborhoods and into areas with populations that are less than 10 percent impoverished and less than 30 percent black. The program provides counseling before and after the move and has received high marks from evaluators who cite improved educational and employment outcomes for beneficiaries. A similar regional program is underway in Chicago.

The settlement also called for affordable-housing development in these “high-opportunity” suburban communities – 300 units a year through 2020. To make this happen, HUD was to provide new financial incentives for developers.

Here is where the story takes a dispiriting turn. Three years later, not a single developer has applied for the incentives. No affordable housing projects are even in the pipeline. That’s according to an eye-opening story the other day in the Baltimore Sun.Baltimore2

So, what happened? Why haven’t developers shown any interest? HUD had no explanation, according to the story, which suggested that perhaps the program hadn’t been well-enough publicized: a prominent builder of affordable housing admitted he didn’t even know about the incentives. Could it be that they weren’t generous enough?

Whatever the reason, the Baltimore experience reflects how difficult it can be to introduce affordable housing to privileged enclaves. No one should underestimate the AFFH challenge.

A little holiday cheer

  • Portland, Ore., has come up with a new funding source for affordable housing: tourists! Sunflower on fence The city council has voted to dedicate a share of the tax on Airbnb-type rentals to the city’s Housing Investment Fund — $1.2 million a year. That’s a drop in the bucket in a city where the affordable housing shortfall amounts to about 24,000 units, but it’s better than nothing.
  • Jackson Hole officialdom has agreed to consider a plan that would dial back commercial growth in favor of housing, with density bonuses offered for workforce housing. A citizen campaign bearing slogans like “Housing not hotels” apparently got a receptive hearing.
  • The Republican leadership of Howell, N.J., is backing an affordable housing project despite, and in the face of, some unusually ugly civic opposition — in a state where support for affordable housing is typically associated with Democrats.howell1 This profile of courage, in the Atlantic, includes a fine summary of the tortuous (and torturous) fate of affordable housing in New Jersey after the landmark Mount Laurel decisions. Another example of how good intentions and a supportive legal infrastructure are not enough.
  • The “recapitalization” of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, as proposed by two economists, would direct a flood of new money to the states for affordable housing via the Housing Trust Fund and the Capital Magnet Fund.fanniemae Vermont would get $4.6 million a year for affordable housing for 20 years under this scheme. Sounds great, but whether this proposal has any legs is an open question. Some members of Congress would just as soon do away with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae altogether.
  •  A community of 15 tiny houses is scheduled to open later this month in Seattle to provide transitional quarters for homeless people. Granted, this isn’t exactly cheerful news, but at least it’s different.

Capital ideas

This country’s shortage of affordable rental units runs into the millions, and Vermont’s is in the thousands. Where’s the money going to come from to build or rehab our way out of this hole? Government spending falls chronically and abysmally short, but there’s a glimmer of hope that a growing fraction of the massive need can come from an unlikely source: private investors. finance1

But first, consider the scale of the need. According to the recent Harvard report on rental housing, 11.4 million renter households are “severely burdened,” paying more than 50 percent of their income for housing. (An additional 9.9 million are simply “burdened,” paying more than 30 percent.)

In Vermont, 26 percent of the 75,000 renter households are severely burdened — that’s 19,500 households living in places that are far beyond their means. And in Burlington, 35 percent of the 9,500 renter households are in that position – about 3,300 households.

The federal government’s primary subsidy for affordable housing development is the Low Income Housing Tax Credit, which produces in about 100,000 affordable rental units a year. Then of course there’s the challenge of maintaining affordability for units whose tax credits expire, a challenge that Vermont’s housing nonprofits and state agencies contend with annually as they marshal limited public resources to preserve the affordability of what’s here. And even though they’ve been largely successful, what’s here isn’t anywhere near enough. Yes, the private market is turning out new rental housing to meet the growing population of renters, but the great majority of those new units are high-end.

A new report from the Urban Land Institute and NeighborWorks America, “Preserving Multifamily Workforce and Affordable Housing,” describes a range of new financing vehicles that seek to create or preserve affordable housing. Sixteen partnerships o investment companies – some new, some well-established — are profiled. One thing they have in common is that they offer returns to their investors– who include philanthropies, university endowments, pension funds and private individuals in the single digits, below what the typical real-estate investor might expect to receive. These entities include private equity funds and two real estate investment trusts (REITs) that focus on affordable multifamily developments.

The hook is that this investment sustains a social good: affordable housing. If “socially responsible investing” is popular among Vermont’s progressive monied class, why can’t affordable housing be one of their fiduciary causes? A creative financier might even find some way to enlist the UVM endowment or the state pension fund in support of affordable housing development.finance2

The report also mentions another possible funding source for affordable housing — the EB-5 program, which pulls in big investments from foreigners (typically from East Asia) in exchange for green cards, and which we’ve harped on before. Yes, EB-5 is supposed to be a job-creation program, but it turns out that real estate development developments are among the most popular EB-5 projects, in part because the construction jobs count. (Check out this article, “Real Estate: Still the Darling of EB-5.”) True, affordable housing isn’t the typical EB-5 project, but it has been done – in San Francisco’s Hunter’s Point Shipyard, and in Seattle, near the Seahawks’ stadium. Next up, Miami.

How about Newport, Vt.? 

Zoning’s link to unaffordability AND inequality

Rising income inequality has become a major public concern over the last few years. What some of us may not realize, though, is that zoning is one of the likely culprits.

Yes, zoning and other land-use restrictions can contribute to housing unaffordability, but also — by extension — to income inequality and diminishing productivity.furman2

That’s the argument that Jason Furman, chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisors, brought to the Urban Institute in an address last month. His remarks had scholarly underpinnings, in the form of charts and footnotes.

Here’s a compressed version of what he said: Income inequality has increased over the last several decades, as have land-use restrictions in the more productive metropolitan areas. Meanwhile, labor mobility has declined — workers are less likely to switch jobs and move around the country for higher pay — and so have annual increases in productivity. The drop in mobility ( or “fluidity”) is not well understood, but one cause appears to be the high cost of housing in high-wage, productive cities (such as Boston or San Francisco) that many would-be employees can’t afford to move to.

“Zoning and other land-use restrictions, by restricting the supply of housing and so increasing its cost, may make it difficult for individuals to move to areas with better-paying jobs and higher-quality schools,” he said. (He acknowledged that some land-use restrictions can be beneficial, but that some can be harmfully excessive, in such forms as minimum lot sizes, off-street parking requirements, height limits, prohibitions on multifamily housing, and lengthy permitting processes.)

Hampered mobility diminishes economic growth, he said, citing the same recent study we referred to in a recent post.

Generally speaking, Furman said, zoning restrictions tend to favor well-to-do property owners, who defend these restrictions so as to safeguard their assets. Stringent zoning reduces housing supply, maintains high prices, reinforces wealthy enclaves, and effectively repels people of moderate or low income. The restrictiveness of land-use regulations correlates with the gap between construction costs and house prices — the bigger the gap, the more land costs figure into the those higher prices.

“The timing of tighter land use regulations may not have been a coincidence,” Furman said. “After a turbulent decade of the 1960s in the United States that saw racial tensions flare, with rioting in many urban areas around the country that damaged or destroyed both residential and commercial structures, thousands of high income, predominantly white families moved out of many cities, spurring the continued rise of racially and socioeconomically homogeneous communities. These communities were also strictly zoned, a choice which may very well have been a part of a conscious or unconscious attempt to maintain this homogeneity through the affordability channel.”

Nowadays, there’s an increased demand for multi-family housing, but this form of housing tends to be heavily regulated, he said, and one of the nation’s challenges is to reduce regulatory barriers to increasing the supply of this housing option. In fact, the Obama administration is promoting an initiative (the Multi-family Risk Sharing Mortgage) to shore up the “limited supply of credit” for multifamily developments.

What’s more, Obama’s FY16 budget includes $300 million for Local Housing Policy Grants — a competitive program, he said, designed to provide funds “to those localities and regional coalitions” that support “new zoning and land use regulations to create an expanded, more flexible and diverse housing supply.”

Hmm, any interest in Vermont?

New life for old idea?

When the housing-unaffordability problem comes up at a public meeting in Burlington, chances are someone will stand up and call for rent control.  rental1Never mind that the city rejected the idea three decades ago and no one has made a serious effort to revive it locally. It’s an idea that never goes away, though, and is getting some fresh currency these days — where else, in California, the housing-unaffordability epicenter.

Rent control’s heyday was in the ‘70s and ‘80s, apparently. Massachusetts did away with it in 1994 via a statewide vote, but it can still be found in many municipalities in New York, New Jersey and Maryland, as well as California, where tenants’ advocates are pushing to get more communities to sign on and have come up with an organizing toolkit. “Rent control moment gains momentum as housing prices soar,” read a recent news headline, but a closer look suggests that much of the impetus is in California. Most states, after all, have laws that prohibit rent control, although in Washington, there’s an effort to lift the ban for Seattle.

Any groundswell in favor of rent control would have to grow out of large numbers of renters, and renters are certainly on the increase nationally. A new Harvard report announces that “that 43 million families and individuals live in rental housing, an increase of nearly 9 million households since 2005 — the largest gain in any 10-year period on record.”

Renters are a distinct minority in Vermont, where the home-ownership rate is above average. In fact, renters outnumber homeowners in just two cities — Burlington and Winooski — so if rent control were plausible anywhere in Vermont, those would be the likely places. City voters would have to approve a charter change, which would require legislative approval. How unlikely is that?

Burlington voters overwhelmingly rejected rent control in a special election in 1981, during Bernie Sanders’ first mayoral term. (Actually, they rejected the creation of a “fair housing commission,” which everyone agreed was a proxy for rent control.) They were influenced by a publicity campaign against the measure mounted by commercial interests.  burlingtonhouseSanders’ critics on the left complained he didn’t try very hard to see the idea through, and in fact he went on to promote affordable housing via a range of other policies.

Barring a major ground shift, rent control will remain one of those recurrent policy ideas with no traction in these parts. Like single-payer health care.

Modest proposal revisited

At first glance, The Times’ recent  exposition on the surfeit of Chinese residential real-estate investment seemed exotic, distant. The money seems to be flowing into hot, upscale regions to the south, and one of the investors even asserted, “Chinese people like newer areas.” china1

But before you conclude this phenomenon has nothing to do with us, in graying old Vermont, consider this: Chinese students are enrolling in U.S. universities in increasing numbers, the story pointed out, adding: “Their parents often buy homes in college towns.”

“If you look at the stuent populations of any major or nonmajor university,” the Times story quoted a Chinese real estate executive as saying, “you’ll get a really good indication of what property prices are going to do.” What he apparently meant is that Chinese buyers, who more often than not pay cash, bid prices up.

This brings to mind the University of Vermont – never mind whether it qualifies as a major or a nonmajor institution. It’s eagerly stepping up its quotient of international students – part of the strategic plan, don’t you know – and the lion’s share of those students come from China. These are students, generally, whose parents can afford to pay full fare.

Here we pause and pivot to point out two independent trends:

  • Chinese investors are pouring money into American residential real estate, and many of them hanker to live in this country.
  • Vermont is desperately short not just of affordable housing, but of the capital needed to fill that need.

All of which suggests that we revive the EB-5 idea we floated a few months ago. Why not tap the profusive cash of Chinese investors who yearn for green cards to build affordable housing for Vermonters – affordable housing in upscale, high-opportunity areas, no less. With their residency established, the parents could then find accommodations for themselves near their collegiate offspring. China2

We can’t resist noting, again, that the Vermont regional EB-5 office is headquartered in the same state agency (Commerce) that hosts the Department of Housing and Community Development.

Not bad, could be better: AARP’s take on BTV’s ‘livability’

A willingness to consider home-sharing is among the key findings of a new AARP survey of 500 Burlington residents age 45 and older.

Burlington2When asked if they would be open to a home-sharing arrangement with a person who could provide services in order for them to continue living in the home, 56 percent of the respondents said yes. That was up from 36 percent in an AARP survey nine years ago.

The new response suggests a pent-up demand for more accessory dwelling units on properties where older Burlingtonians want to age in place — which most respondents clearly wish to do. Seventy-nine percent “strongly agreed” when asked about their desire to remain in their current home, and 80 percent rated Burlington as a good or excellent place for older people to live.

The home-sharing finding suggests that current services, mentioned in a previous post, are undersubscribed. It also points to a need for a supportive regulatory climate for accessory dwelling units, which are, after all, an important piece in the chronic puzzle of how to come up with more affordable housing.

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Another housing finding of note: Asked their opinion about building moderate- to low-income housing units in vacant lots in Burlington, 67 percent responded favorably, with 32 percent opposed. These numbers might have been slightly higher/lower is the question had used the contemporary term of choice, “affordable housing,” which has a nicer ring but which is, we have to admit, something of a euphemism.

Asked for their concerns about what might make it difficult to age in place, “high cost of living” topped the list, but it remains unclear which kinds of costs, specifically, are at issue.

Besides housing, transportation and “community engagement” were spheres covered by the telephone survey, which comprised 20-minute telephone interviews of randomly selected people. The margin of error was 4 percent. To see the full survey, “The Path to Livability: A Citizen Survey of Burlington, Vermont,” click here.

A presentation of the survey results by researcher Joanne Binette was made in AARP’s Burlington office to an audience of about two dozen people, among them housing and transportation specialists.

Burlington4

Older people in Burlington get around in multiple ways. Driving is still the main way (83 percent), but these people also walk (68 percent) and bike (41 percent) or take the bus (27 percent) at least some of the time.

Generally, they find it easy to get around even if they couldn’t drive (66 percent). The main drawback to bus service, they said, was the lack of weekend or evening service. (One set of bus concerns relates to schedules and routes, another to bus stops and access to them.)

Fifty-fiBurlington7ve percent said they would bicycle if conditions for cyclists were better.

But are the streets safe? Apparently they’re more so for bicyclists (51 percent said streets are safe for cyclists) than for people with disabilities (41 percent), older people (36 percent) or children (33 percent) or pedestrians (27 percent).

Respondents had opinions on improving sidewalks and bus service, but appeared to be relatively satisfied with educational and social activities available to them in Burlington.

 

 

Affordability with an expiration date

expireIf we’re going to address the housing-affordability shortage, two things have to happen. The first is obvious: more affordable units have to be built or developed. The second is less obvious: For the affordable units that already exist, insufficient as they are, affordability has to be preserved.

Preservation is necessary because affordability typically derives from public subsidies, such has low income housing tax credits, that expire – after 15 years, in the case of LIHTC. As the expiration nears, a private owner might well be tempted to convert the units to market rate or to sell to a new owner who will have no affordability restrictions. Such a sale might be particularly tempting in hot real estate markets.

A wave of coming expirations across the country prompted this ominous Blooomberg headline last week, “A lot of cheap housing is about to get very expensive.” The story drew from an Urban Institute blog post on a review of 1.2 million project-based rental assistance units around the country that found about one-third were at risk of losing their affordability status in the next couple of years. The Urban Institute researchers recommended that local preservationists (such as housing non-profits and land trusts) focus their efforts on units in “high-opportunity” or low-poverty areas, where owners’ temptation to convert to market rates might be particularly strong.

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Vermont, mercifully, has benefited from a concerted preservation effort since the late ‘80s – a combined initiative of state agencies (Vermont Housing Finance Agency and Vermont Housing & Conservation Board) that marshal state and federal dollars to provide and extend subsidies, and non-profit organizations, such as land trusts, that step in to acquire properties before they disappear from affordability ranks.

A survey last year turned up 822 units in privately owned apartments in Vermont with subsidies due to expire before 2020. An additional 1,649 units controlled by non-profits were found to be eligible for new investments, such as capital improvements or subsidy-extensions, before 2020.

Whether Vermont will be able to maintain its historically high rate of preservation for these units will depend, in large part, on the availability of public funds to underwrite the needed subsidies and investments, and the outlook for that, at both state and federal levels, is dubious.

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And even if Vermont could preserve the affordability in perpetuity of all the current affordable units, there aren’t anywhere near enough of them to meet the demand. Many more affordable units have to be developed, and more public money will be necessary for that, too. That’s money that won’t be available until political leaders make housing a priority.

 

California’s sideshow

Nowhere, seemingly, is the U.S. housing crisis more acute than in California.

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So you might suppose that here, in unassuming, modestly-overpriced Vermont, we can safely ignore what’s unfolding in California. To the contrary, it does make sense to pay some attention, for these reasons:

 

  • California social trends and public policies have a way of diffusing through the rest of the country. Not only that, middle-class Californians, in exodus because they’ve been priced out of the housing market, are moving in droves to other parts of the country and effectively bidding up housing prices in the places where they relocate.
  •  Sundry housing-affordability initiatives in California might give us some ideas about what to do here. San Francisco has a Nov. 3 election with a ballot full of affordable housing measures. Redwood City, to the south, just approved an affordable-housing impact fee over developers’ objections. People in L.A. are looking into the prospects for land trusts, something Vermonters already know a fair amount about. And as we’ve mentioned before, school districts are facilitating workforce-housing developments merely to attract and retain teachers.
  •  California generates much of what we consume here as mass-media entertainment, so we should be aware of the social context.
  •  Unavoidably, the part of entertainment value in what we’re hearing about the extraordinary California housing market, especially the one in the Bay Area, is in the form of Schadenfreude. Apparently, “there goes the neighborhood” applies when Apple employees start moving in.

Any dreams you have of moving out there should be dispelled by this short film, “Million Dollar Shack,”

a middle-class lament is filled with tales of egregiously over-priced properties, skyrocketing rents, absentee overseas investors, etc.