New population estimates have revealed a startling trend, as described in this blog post on the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies website: urban cores growing faster than suburban fringes. Nationally, city populations were up 0.91 percent on average in 2010-14, compared to 0.77 for the suburbs.
“This recent trend of city populations growing faster than those of suburbs is a dramatic departure from prior decades, when suburban population growth significantly outpaced that of cities,” writes Rachel Bogardus Drew, a post-doctoral fellow.
Naturally, this set us to wondering about Vermont’s own megalopolis. Not surprisingly, especially in a state that likes to think of itself as idiosyncratic, the trend doesn’t hold here. If anything, it’s operating in reverse: suburbs here are still outgrowing the urban core of Burlington and Winooski.
Before getting carried away with this, we remind ourselves that the latest estimates are just that, and the Vermont-scale numbers are so small that errors could easily swing some totals the other way.
Still, we can’t help but notice that the populations of Burlington and Winooski are both down, and those of all the other Chittenden County towns, save Westford, are up:
2010 census | 2009-13 estimate | |
Bolton town | 1182 | 1204 |
Buels gore | 30 | 46 |
Burlington city | 42417 | 42331 |
Charlotte town | 3754 | 3776 |
Colchester town | 17067 | 17167 |
Essex town | 19587 | 19908 |
Hinesburg town | 4396 | 4427 |
Huntington town | 1938 | 1965 |
Jericho town | 5009 | 5021 |
Milton town | 10352 | 10429 |
Richmond town | 4081 | 4086 |
St. George town | 674 | 728 |
Shelburne town | 7144 | 7332 |
South Burlington city | 17904 | 18163 |
Underhill town | 3016 | 3030 |
Westford town | 2029 | 1947 |
Williston town | 8698 | 8820 |
Winooski city | 7267 | 7257 |
Let’s face it, though, the rises and falls are pretty small, in most cases – further evidence of Vermont’s much-lamented population stagnancy, or graying, as the Millennials flee and the old-timers hang-on. Could it be that some of the Millennials are leaving because they can’t afford to live here?