Tag Archives: housing crisis

Unease Down East

Burlington and Portland, Maine, have a few things in common. They’re the biggest cities in their states, they both pride themselves in their trendy livability (as measured by magazine rankings, food-trucks per capita, those sorts of things), they both experienced negligible development of rental housing for many years, they both worry about gentrifying neighborhoods, and they both have a housing affordability problem.

Portland’s problem might seem a bit more acute, thanks in part to a six-part series in the Portland Press Herald that elaborates on what the mayor-elect calls a “housing crisis.” portland1The themes echo other crises around the country – soaring rents (up 40 percent over the last five years), stagnant or declining incomes, middle-income renters priced out and fleeing to the burbs.

The average two-bedroom apartment in Portland, according to the newspaper, is $1,560. That’s too bad, because an apartment like that is out of reach for anyone with a housing voucher. HUD puts the fair-market rent for a two-bedroom in Portland at $1,074 – which happens to be well below Burlington’s $1,309. What’s more, landlords in Portland can capitalize on the hot rental market by charging non-refundable application fees, which their counterparts in Vermont cannot.

How Portland is going to relieve its “crisis” is an open question. The mayor-elect has appointed a committee. The city is examining municipally owned land with an eye toward potential sites for affordable housing. New developments are supposed to make some units affordable for middle-income renters, but that inclusionary policy apparently doesn’t extend to the working poor. Here, as elsewhere, the remedies seem to pale before  the problem.

At last! Housing that serves a purpose

Thanks partly to the Burlington Housing Action Plan, which calls for housing up to 900 collegianspotentially on one to two carefully-selected downtown locations,” we’re going to be hearing a lot, over the next few years, about something called “purpose-built student housing.”

That’s because the new wave of student housing around the country is being generated by private developers on behalf of colleges and universities, as would be the case in Burlington. And what these developers say they’re putting up is “purpose-built.”  KnoxSuch as “The Knox,” in Knoxville, Tenn., near the University of Tennessee campus.

Now, you might well wonder: “Purpose-built” housing as opposed to what? Pointless housing? (Perhaps examples of the latter spring immediately to mind.)

So, what does “purpose-built” mean? Here’s the Merriam Webster definition:

Designed and built for a particular use

Like, to be lived in? As in, duh, apartment building? There must be more to it.

Students aren’t the only target of “purpose-built” developments. A cursory Google search turns up “purpose-built” developments for older people, disabled people, mixed-income people. A prime example of the latter is East Lake, a revitalized neighborhood in Atlanta that used to be a rundown public housing project.

Take note: “Purpose-built communities” and “intentional communities” are not the same thing. (“Intentional communities” as opposed to what, you might wonder. Accidental communities?)

The purpose-built phenomenon seems to be hot in Canada. Check out Mirvish Village in Toronto, which prides itself on its diversity. The website does not make it easy to discern, however, how much it costs to live there.

OK, so what’s special about “purpose-built” student housing, as distinct from a plain old privately contracted dorm? (Redstone Lofts on UVM’s campus, privately built and managed, would be an example of the latter, sort of. Nobody was describing that as “purpose-built” when it went up a few years ago.)

The amenities, apparently. knox2Roof decks, hot tubs, climbing walls, flat-screen TVs in every suite, swimming pools, those sorts of things.

Very well, let’s imagine six-story “purpose-built” student housing on the northwest corner of South Winooski Avenue and Main Street, the parking lot next to the fire station. (Presumably the climbing wall and hot tubs would be on the inside, not accessible to passers-by.) Here’s what we’d like to know:

Will the inclusionary zoning ordinance apply, and if not, how can the ordinance be amended to ensure that a decent share of these “purpose-built” units are affordable? 

Another population bubble

Millennials become the most numerous living generation this year, outnumbering the Baby Boomers, and there’s no shortage of treatises analyzing their tastes, their world views, and their impact on the housing market. How seriously to take these generalizations, or any other thumbnail pronouncements about generations, is an open question. (For a Pew Foundation exegesis of “generations research” that finds Millennials less religious, more diverse and less conservative than their predecessors — that is, compared to Generation X, Baby Boomers and the Silents(!), click here.)

Clearly, though, people born after 1980 tend to have higher levels of student loan debt than their forebears, and fewer are buying houses as a result.Millennials1 Young renters’ student debt burdens grew after the Great Recession, even as their median incomes dropped, which left them less able to qualify for a mortgage or to save for a downpayment. A new research brief from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, “Student Loan Debt and the Housing Decisions of Young Households,” lays out the details.

Nevertheless, there are commentators who see Millennials as poised to fuel a housing boom. “Millennials are making their move in the housing market,” proclaims the Dallas Morning News, quoting real-estate industry source attributing 30 percent of home sales to Millennials.

The common notion that Millennials want to live in cities is subject to dispute. More Millennials are moving from cities to suburbs than the other way around, Census data supposedly show. A survey came out earlier this year that got plenty of attention: It had 66 percent of Millennials preferring a life in suburbs, 24 percent rural areas, and just 10 percent cities.

The survey was sponsored by the National Association of Home Builders, though — an entity that would seem to have a vested interest in promoting the single-family-home-big-yard lifestyle.

But wait. A survey closer to home suggests that many Millennials really do hanker for a single-family home with a big yard. The 2014 “Young Professional Housing Survey Report,” sponsored by the Lake Champlain Regional Chamber of Commerce, asked 400 respondents (63 percent of whom were renters) what type of residence they would most like to live in, and 82 percent said single-family detached house with a yard. And most of those wanted a big yard!millennials2

Now, to the extent that these Burlington-area Millennials prefer suburban living, they do want to live in a place that’s a short commute to work, and a place where they can walk to community services.

Still, the young cohort seems to cling to the old American dream of a low-density-neighborhood lifestyle. Hasn’t anyone told them that big yards are obsolete in the Age of Climate Change?

Good news, bad news

First, the bad news:

  • The city council in Parsippany, N.J., faced a stark choice –- affordable housing or Whole Foods — and picked the latter. Just how it happened that the fate of a 26-acre site called Waterview came to this is no doubt a story in itself, but this much seems clear: the powers that be leaned against a 600-plus unit affordable housing development, contending it would be a drain on local taxes. whole-foods1This might not be in the spirit of affirmatively furthering fair housing. That site, next to a neighborhood of single family homes, might well be a “high-opportunity” location for affordable housing in a city with a median family income of $81,000. Whole Foods, we suspect, does not as a general rule move in to low-opportunity areas.
  • The Illinois Housing Appeals Board was established six years ago to hear pleadings by developers contending they’ve been unfairly prevented from building affordable housing projects. The appeal process was created in connection with a law requiring municipalities to submit affordable housing plans to the state if less than 10 percent of their housing units were affordable. Well, it seems that municipalities ignore the law with impunity, the board has no authority, and it has yet to hear a single case. Back to the legislative drawing board? In the Chicago metro area, low income tax credits are issued preponderantly in lower-income areas, an analysis found. Among the wealthy suburbs where opponents are showing up in force is Wilmette (pop. 27,000, median household income $130,000), where a hearing on a 20-unit development drew a crowd the other night.

The good news comes in two forms, tangible and intangible.

  • On the tangible side, 19 units of affordable housing are back on the rolls in Montpelier, thanks to a rehab projectbarre-st-construction by Downstreet Housing and Community Development, with an array of collaborators. These are studios and one-bedrooms on Barre Street, all a short walk to downtown. This is the sort of transit-friendly positioning that we’d like to see more of.
  • One of the collaborators was the Vermont Housing & Conservation Board, an affordable-housing mainstay that has been underfunded for years. A report to the governor from the Council on Pathways to Poverty calls on the state not only to fund VHCB at its full statutory rate ($19.5 million), but also to restore the money meant for VHCB that has been diverted to fill budget gaps since 2001 ($41 million). With full funding, VHCB might be able not only to support more low-income housing, but workforce housing for people who make “middling” wages of $13 to $25 an hour. The report also calls for a $2 lodging fee, half of which would be reserved for affordable housing and homelessness-aversion. This is intangible good news, in the sense that somebody is saying and pushing for the right things that have yet to happen.
  • Speaking of workforce housing, people in Bend, Oregon, are realizing that middle-class people ineligible for subsidized housing are shut out, as housing prices soar. So the City Council is starting to give some serious thought to what can be done for them in addition to low-income people. Again, nothing has happened yet, but we take the fact that this discussion is underway as more (intangible) good news.
  • This item might seem like a stretch for the good news category, but at least it’s of the intangible all-talk variety: A prominent Republican has emerged to say that the housing crisis deserves more attention in the presidential campaign. That’s Scott Brown, the former senator, scottbrow who also happens to be a member of the board of J. Ronald Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America’s Families. In an opinion piece, Brown lamented that housing has been missing from the debates, and said that if he were moderator, he’d ask the candidates what they’d do about the shortage of affordable rentals. Meanwhile, another opinion piece, by foundation president Pamela Patenaude in a housing industry publication, calls for an increase in federal support for the low-income housing tax credit. Hear, hear.

Learning from Massachusetts

The Greater Boston Housing Report Card 2015 is out, and it’s an eye-opener. Prepared for the Boston Foundation  by the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University, it’s a detailed analysis of Massachusetts’ housing-unaffordability crisis –a crisis that results, in part, from not enough housing being produced. What accounts for the insufficiency?Mass2

“We have failed to meet housing production targets because there is no way to do so given the high cost of producing housing for working and middle-income households.”

That’s from the executive summary, which goes on to make the same point in another way:

“(T)he cost of developing new housing for working and middle-income households has become prohibitive in Massachusetts. Radical remedies will be needed to overcome the barriers to housing production …”

And what are the barriers? High development costs, of course ($274 per square foot for urban projects, of which $159 is construction and $41 is land acquisition). And zoning regulations that limit density and where multi-family projects can be built.

Now, you might be thinking, what does any of this have to do with us, up here in our little, rural, unprepossessing state? Metro Boston is another world — far pricier and denser than any place around here.

Well, we’d argue that the problems that Massachusetts is facing are problems we share — albeit on a smaller scale. And remember, Massachusetts has an affordable housing zoning law (Chapter 40B) that’s arguably stronger than what’s on Vermont’s books.

Yes, it would be nice if we could get a comparable report card for housing in Vermont, but failing that, perhaps we can learn something from what the one for Massachusetts.

The report notes that “Although there is a lot of vacant land, most vacant sites are not zoned for multi-family residential development.”

As for zoning:

“Highly restrictive zoning, present in virtually every one of the state’s 351 municipalities, creates an artificially high barrier to development. It pushes developers to propose smaller projects (i.e., fewer units) and smaller units (i.e., fewer bedrooms per unit) in order to reduce the perceived impact on the neighborhoods and — in the case of larger units attractive to families with school-age children — the perceived impact on the town or city’s education budget. The complexity of getting zoning changes approved dramatically extends the development period and increases carrying and soft costs. The cumulative effect drives up both the cost of development (seen in the high level of site costs, financing, and soft costs) and rents.Mass1

“Thus, significant resistance to any change in the local community ambience has also meant that local support has heavily favored low-density, smaller projects, both of which are far more expensive to produce. Higher density housing maximizes the efficiency of land use, and larger projects create economies of scale in development and construction. Massachusetts residents opposed to zoning for multi-family housing at 20 units per acre are astounded to learn that the city of Paris — a pretty nice place to live with undeniable “character” — has a density of approximately 120 units per acre!

“When developers are given permission only to build projects of very low density, they will do so. As a result, the housing that is built will be expensive and affordable only for the very well-to-do or, if public subsidies are involved, to people with very low incomes. Working and moderate-income families will not be able to afford these units. This state of affairs, of course, causes the average cost of producing multifamily housing in the Commonwealth to increase.”

Here we note that merely increasing the housing supply (as some are advocating) isn’t going to solve the affordability problem if the added supply happens to be … luxury-scale and thus … unaffordable to all but the wealthy.

More brainstorming: self-building

The housing-unaffordability problem is too big, pervasive and complex to yield to single, simple remedies. Yes, government at all levels has to play a substantially bigger role than it does now. But without substantial new federal funding and subsidies — which can’t be found on mainstream politicians’ lists of spending priorities — we might as well brainstorm about piecemeal, alternative solutions.

Having touched on co-living and cohousing in the last post, we bring you a continental variant of this idea: collective building.baugruppe1

This intriguing headline in the Guardian, “The do-it-yourself answer to Britain’s housing crisis,” offers an entrée: community members, with help from a land trust, building their own affordable homes. Britain even has an organization, the National Custom and Self-Build Association, to promote such efforts.

Self-building seems to be an even bigger trend on the continent. In Germany, baugruppen, or building groups, are active all over, and reportedly account for 10 percent of new homes built in Berlin. baugruppe3These are groups of people who come together, often with something in common (they might be musicians, say, or share a political philosophy), and take responsibility for acquiring land, hiring architects and contractors, and creating their own housing. For a summary of how it works, click here, or another brief description, here.

The baugruppe is a well-established form of organization in Germany and apparently gets a good deal of institutional support, including financing from a state bank. Whether something like this could work in this country is an open question.

Mike Eliason, a designer who was author of a seven-part series on baugruppen, seems to think it could, at least in a place like Seattle. For the first article, on the website of a Seattle advocacy organization called The Urbanist, click here. As Eliason describes it, baugruppen projects cost less than traditional models because they do without developers and marketing, as well as real estate agents.baugruppe2

It all sounds reminiscent of cohousing, except that it’s commonly done in an urban setting — as the photos in this post reflect. It also sounds like a fairly middle-class phenomenon, considering how much of a personal investment it requires of its participants. Who has the time and energy necessary to do all the meeting and planning and hiring and so on? Probably not someone who holds down two minimum-wage jobs. Not that we don’t need affordable housing, sometimes called workforce housing, for middle-class professional types, too.

So what if?

If you’re fed up with the high-priced housing here and want trade the Champlain Valley for the Treasure Valley (Boise, Idaho), be careful. Boise If you’re making less than $35,000 a year, you’ll be hard-pressed to find an affordable apartment, according to this article in the Idaho Statesman. (“Low-income housing crisis,” blares Idaho Public Radio.)  Sure, average rents are lower there than in Burlington, but they’re rising fast. What’s more, developers say they can’t make a profit on affordable housing without more incentives than Idaho makes available.

If you think you’ll be better off in Illinois,Illinois1 be aware that you probably can’t get on a waiting list for a housing choice voucher (72 percent of the Section 8 waiting lists are closed, we learn from a report whose title says it all, “Not Even a Place in Line.” True, average rents in Illinois are a bit lower, as is the “housing wage” — the amount you need to earn an hour to be able to afford a two-bedroom apartment.  (“Afford” means you pay no more than 30 percent of your income for housing.) Vermont’s 2BR housing wage is $20.68 an hour; Illinois’ is $18.78. Don’t spend the difference all in one place.

If you still hanker for California in hopes that you can make do outside the glitzy metro areas, think again. Even Bakersfield, site of a recent “Affordable Housing Summit,” is brooding about a housing “crisis,” with rent inflation far outpacing wage growth. (Bakersfield!)

In Denver, described as “a landlord’s market,” at least you can call a housing hotline for advice, but you might be put on hold. Calls are coming in steadily, with affordability the main concern and callers reporting rent hikes of $200 to $400.

If you think a career in academia will spare you housing-unaffordability travails, you might be right in the long run … but not necessarily in the short run in Ithaca, N.Y.,  where junior faculty at Ithaca College are reportedly struggling.

If you’re a prospective student at Middlebury College with an ambulatory disability, you might wonder if a new townhouse-style dorm under construction – sans elevators — will fully accommodate you. But you can take heart that scores of accessibility/visitability advocates at the college are in your corner.

If you’re an artist hankering for affordable artists’ housing – something that is emerging in warehouses and abandoned factories around the country, as we’ve noted before – you can forget about Burlington’s celebrated artists’ enclave, the Enterprise Zone in the South End. The mayor said no to housing there, as did the City Council, as did the Housing Action Plan. Did anyone take a serious look at whether affordable housing could be introduced there without gentrifying the neighborhood? Not that we’ve heard.

Oh well, Kingston, N.Y., had another idea. An old lace factory Kingston there has been converted to affordable housing  for “writers, dancers, graphic designers, musicians, painters, photographers, and even a puppeteer,” we learn from a local news account.

Strange bedfellows, or not

Not long ago we heard a tidy summary of two converging demographic trends bearing down on the affordable-housing problem:

There is the surging population of older people, Baby Boomers and beyond, who are looking to downsize.aging2

Then there is the younger-adult population — Millennials, Gen-Xers — who are looking to up-size but can’t afford to, as they postpone buying homes.

Might there be a way to meet these divergent generational needs in some way that somehow preserves neighborhoods with a stamp of affordability?

That’s a key challenge that one of the presenters in our “Thriving Communities” seminar, John E. Davis, posed at the end of his discourse. (You can see the seminar in webinar-slide form if you click here, or in video mode if you click here.) He admitted he didn’t have any easy answers.

Neither do we, but we have a few notions that might prolong the discussion. These ideas are predicated on the fact that older people, overwhelmingly, want to age in place (that is, in their own homes); that in many cases, those homes are too big for them to manage; that increasingly, older people are open to the idea of home-sharing (as we noted in the post about a recent AARP survey in Burlington). Why not look for ways to convert big, empty houses into spaces that can accommodate both an aging widower and a young family?burlingtonhouse

One way would be to encourage — and drop regulatory barriers from — the addition of accessory dwelling units. (For an article on how zoning can facilitate aging-in-place, click here. For an essay on aging-friendly land-use policies, click here.) The new unit could be an annex that the older person would occupy, freeing up the main house for other residents.

Or the new unit could be a self-contained space within the house itself. We’ve seen articles touting the idea of grown children adding an “in-law suite” to their own homes to house an aging parent. Why not turn that around, so that that aging person’s home is remodeled to include an independent suite that the aging person parent can then occupy, opening up the rest of the house for another owner, perhaps a young family?

family

How might affordability enter this picture? Perhaps as a condition of publicly subsidized financing that could be offered to promote construction of accessory units or the conversion of big old houses into duplexes. Various tax incentives could be offered for older home-owners to take these steps.aging1

And who knows, maybe the hide-bound mortgage world could be expanded to include new forms of co-ownership or shared equity for some no-longer-strange bedfellows: Older empty-nesters aging at home compatibly under the same roof as younger full-nesters.

 

 

Note by Ted Wimpey:

Another good option for “aging in place” is “home sharing.” Check out HomeShare Vermont for a good example.
http://www.homesharevermont.org/about-us/

“HomeShare Vermont helps people stay in their homes by connecting them with potential housemates who are looking for a place to live. While our primary goal is to help elders stay at home, we have found that people of all ages and abilities can benefit from homesharing. There are no age, ability or income restrictions to use our services. “

 

Better than nothing

Off-year election round-up:

  • In San Francisco, where housing issues dominated the ballot — or at least the election coverage – Proposition F naturally got the most attention.  sanfrancisco2That was an initiative to restrict Airbnb, which proponents argued is effectively reducing the city’s housing stock via the proliferation of pricey short-term rentals. Prop F inspired a kind of media circus, with Airbnb investing $8 million in a campaign to defeat it, with pro-Prop F forces occupying Airbnb headquarters the day before the election. Voters said no, in any event, 55 percent against. If you want to learn more about Prop F in excruciating detail, click here.

Voters said yes, though, to Proposition A, $310 million in housing bonds for developing and maintaining affordable housing – the first such bonding question to gain approval in San Francisco in nearly two decades, so apparently the affordability crisis there is registering the electorate. They said no, however to Proposition I, a moratorium on market-rate developments in the historically Latino Mission District.

Of course, there’s a school of thought that the housing crisis in San Francisco and everywhere else is mostly a supply and demand problem, and that if development were allowed to flourish without political or regulatory constraints, prices would go down, or at least, not go up so fast. One problem with that argument in a place like San Francisco is that the population isn’t fixed: There are simply too many moneyed people (techies, among them) poised to move in to town to pay the soaring prices that the market can bear when the housing supply grows.

  • In Maine, voters overwhelmingly approved Question 2, a $15 million bond to underwrite 225 affordable units for older people and to fund repairs for 100 homes of low-income aging. oldguy “That’s a drop in the bucket,” said the Portland Press Herald in an editorial, given the “demographic storm” coming to Maine. (Maine officialdom is anguishing about the  greying population, same as in Vermont.) Still, it’s better than nothing.

 

 

 

 

  • In Summit County, Colo. (home to Breckenridge), voters agreed to maintain a tax that supports workforce and affordable housing. It’s a sales tax of 0.125 percent. Doesn’t sound like much, but again, it’s better than nothing.  Perhaps the Vermont townships that host ski areas can come up with something more generous for their workers.

Where growth yields to high rents

Here’s another way to look at the housing-affordability problem: as a damper on economic growth. city1

Two economists published a study this summer that essentially made that point. They analyzed growth rates of 220 metropolitan areas and how those rates contributed to national growth from 1964 to 2009. They found, surprisingly, that some of the most productive cities, where pay rates also happen to be high, actually contributed less to overall growth than one might have expected. That’s because employment didn’t grow proportionately in those cities — they cite New York, San Francisco and San Jose in particular — in large part because of housing constraints.

“The main effect of the fast productivity growth in New York, San Francisco, and San Jose was an increase in local housing prices and local wages, not in employment,” write Chang-Tai Hsieh, of the University of Chicago, and Enrico Moretti, of U.C.-Berkeley. “In the presence of strong labor demand, tight housing supply constraints effectively limited employment growth in these cities.”

In other words, workers were prevented from migrating to these productive, high-wage areas because they couldn’t find affordable places to live. By contrast, three-fourths of U.S. growth in those years was attributable to Southern cities and a group of 19 other cities, where housing was more plentiful and wages were lower.

city3

Their article has an overweaning title, “Why do cities matter? Local growth and aggregate growth,” but it’s worth noting their conclusion that the housing constraints in the productive, high-wage cities derived from restrictive or exclusionary land-use regulations. They write:

“Constraints to housing supply reflect both land availability and deliberate land use regulations. We estimate that holding constant land availability, but lowering regulatory constraints in New York, San Francisco, and San Jose cities to the level of the median city would expand their work force and increase U.S. GDP by 9.5%. Our results thus suggest that local land use regulations that restrict housing supply in dynamic labor markets have important externalities on the rest of the country. Incumbent homeowners in high wage cities have a private incentive to restrict housing supply. By doing so, these voters de facto limit the number of US workers who have access to the most productive of American cities.”

And here’s what they say about Silicon Valley, the region between San Jose and San Francisco, which has “some of the most productive labor in the globe. But … by global urban standards, the area is remarkably low density due to land use restrictions. In a region with some of the most expensive real estate in the world, surface parking lots, 1-story buildings and underutilized pieces of land are still remarkably common due to land use restrictions. While the region’s natural amenities—its hills, beaches and parks—are part of the attractiveness of the area, there is enough underutilized land within its urban core that housing units could be greatly expanded without any reduction in natural amenities. Our findings indicate that in general equilibrium, this would raise income and welfare of all US workers.”

Sounds like the technological mecca is plagued by exclusionary zoning.

The economists propose two remedies, neither of which is plausible in the current political climate. One is for the federal government to place limits on locally set land-use regulations. The other is to finance mass transit (such as high-speed trains) that would enable workers to commute to these productive areas without having to live there.

Now then, might any of this translate to Vermont? Consider:

Burlington is an analogue to San Francisco. Of the state’s 19 labor market areas, Burlington/South Burlington’s average annual pay is the highest, by far — $48,529, or about $10,000 more than half the other areas in the state.) Burlington also has an affordable housing shortage that could be termed above average: 61 percent of Burlington’s renters are house burdened (paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing), compared to a state average of 52 percent; and 36 percent are severely house burdened (they pay more than 50 percent), compared to a state average of 26 percent.

So, following their argument, might it be that Vermont would be growing at a higher rate if more workers could afford to live in or near Burlington, one of the state’s highly productive cities? Is Burlington channeling much of its productivity growth into higher housing prices and higher wages?

Lake Champlain Burlington, Vermont.

Perhaps, perhaps not. In Burlington’s favor is a higher rate of employment growth than (3 percent, from 2014 to 2015) than most anywhere else in the state.

On the other hand, employment here might well grow even faster if more workers from the provinces could afford to live here.