Category Archives: housing crisis

Better than nothing

Off-year election round-up:

  • In San Francisco, where housing issues dominated the ballot — or at least the election coverage – Proposition F naturally got the most attention.  sanfrancisco2That was an initiative to restrict Airbnb, which proponents argued is effectively reducing the city’s housing stock via the proliferation of pricey short-term rentals. Prop F inspired a kind of media circus, with Airbnb investing $8 million in a campaign to defeat it, with pro-Prop F forces occupying Airbnb headquarters the day before the election. Voters said no, in any event, 55 percent against. If you want to learn more about Prop F in excruciating detail, click here.

Voters said yes, though, to Proposition A, $310 million in housing bonds for developing and maintaining affordable housing – the first such bonding question to gain approval in San Francisco in nearly two decades, so apparently the affordability crisis there is registering the electorate. They said no, however to Proposition I, a moratorium on market-rate developments in the historically Latino Mission District.

Of course, there’s a school of thought that the housing crisis in San Francisco and everywhere else is mostly a supply and demand problem, and that if development were allowed to flourish without political or regulatory constraints, prices would go down, or at least, not go up so fast. One problem with that argument in a place like San Francisco is that the population isn’t fixed: There are simply too many moneyed people (techies, among them) poised to move in to town to pay the soaring prices that the market can bear when the housing supply grows.

  • In Maine, voters overwhelmingly approved Question 2, a $15 million bond to underwrite 225 affordable units for older people and to fund repairs for 100 homes of low-income aging. oldguy “That’s a drop in the bucket,” said the Portland Press Herald in an editorial, given the “demographic storm” coming to Maine. (Maine officialdom is anguishing about the  greying population, same as in Vermont.) Still, it’s better than nothing.

 

 

 

 

  • In Summit County, Colo. (home to Breckenridge), voters agreed to maintain a tax that supports workforce and affordable housing. It’s a sales tax of 0.125 percent. Doesn’t sound like much, but again, it’s better than nothing.  Perhaps the Vermont townships that host ski areas can come up with something more generous for their workers.

Where growth yields to high rents

Here’s another way to look at the housing-affordability problem: as a damper on economic growth. city1

Two economists published a study this summer that essentially made that point. They analyzed growth rates of 220 metropolitan areas and how those rates contributed to national growth from 1964 to 2009. They found, surprisingly, that some of the most productive cities, where pay rates also happen to be high, actually contributed less to overall growth than one might have expected. That’s because employment didn’t grow proportionately in those cities — they cite New York, San Francisco and San Jose in particular — in large part because of housing constraints.

“The main effect of the fast productivity growth in New York, San Francisco, and San Jose was an increase in local housing prices and local wages, not in employment,” write Chang-Tai Hsieh, of the University of Chicago, and Enrico Moretti, of U.C.-Berkeley. “In the presence of strong labor demand, tight housing supply constraints effectively limited employment growth in these cities.”

In other words, workers were prevented from migrating to these productive, high-wage areas because they couldn’t find affordable places to live. By contrast, three-fourths of U.S. growth in those years was attributable to Southern cities and a group of 19 other cities, where housing was more plentiful and wages were lower.

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Their article has an overweaning title, “Why do cities matter? Local growth and aggregate growth,” but it’s worth noting their conclusion that the housing constraints in the productive, high-wage cities derived from restrictive or exclusionary land-use regulations. They write:

“Constraints to housing supply reflect both land availability and deliberate land use regulations. We estimate that holding constant land availability, but lowering regulatory constraints in New York, San Francisco, and San Jose cities to the level of the median city would expand their work force and increase U.S. GDP by 9.5%. Our results thus suggest that local land use regulations that restrict housing supply in dynamic labor markets have important externalities on the rest of the country. Incumbent homeowners in high wage cities have a private incentive to restrict housing supply. By doing so, these voters de facto limit the number of US workers who have access to the most productive of American cities.”

And here’s what they say about Silicon Valley, the region between San Jose and San Francisco, which has “some of the most productive labor in the globe. But … by global urban standards, the area is remarkably low density due to land use restrictions. In a region with some of the most expensive real estate in the world, surface parking lots, 1-story buildings and underutilized pieces of land are still remarkably common due to land use restrictions. While the region’s natural amenities—its hills, beaches and parks—are part of the attractiveness of the area, there is enough underutilized land within its urban core that housing units could be greatly expanded without any reduction in natural amenities. Our findings indicate that in general equilibrium, this would raise income and welfare of all US workers.”

Sounds like the technological mecca is plagued by exclusionary zoning.

The economists propose two remedies, neither of which is plausible in the current political climate. One is for the federal government to place limits on locally set land-use regulations. The other is to finance mass transit (such as high-speed trains) that would enable workers to commute to these productive areas without having to live there.

Now then, might any of this translate to Vermont? Consider:

Burlington is an analogue to San Francisco. Of the state’s 19 labor market areas, Burlington/South Burlington’s average annual pay is the highest, by far — $48,529, or about $10,000 more than half the other areas in the state.) Burlington also has an affordable housing shortage that could be termed above average: 61 percent of Burlington’s renters are house burdened (paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing), compared to a state average of 52 percent; and 36 percent are severely house burdened (they pay more than 50 percent), compared to a state average of 26 percent.

So, following their argument, might it be that Vermont would be growing at a higher rate if more workers could afford to live in or near Burlington, one of the state’s highly productive cities? Is Burlington channeling much of its productivity growth into higher housing prices and higher wages?

Lake Champlain Burlington, Vermont.

Perhaps, perhaps not. In Burlington’s favor is a higher rate of employment growth than (3 percent, from 2014 to 2015) than most anywhere else in the state.

On the other hand, employment here might well grow even faster if more workers from the provinces could afford to live here.

Housing notes from all over

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  • Before you dismiss the idea that shipping containers can be used for housing, consider this student-housing complex in Amsterdam, as described by The Guardian. Can you imagine something like this on the northwest corner of Burlington’s Main Street/S. Winooski intersection, which has been suggested as a possible site for privately developed UVM student housing?

 

  • The City Council in Portland, Ore., where a “housing emergency” has been declared and where rents have risen more than 20 percent over five years, boosted the city’s affordable housing fund by $64 million. The money comes from a property-tax set-aside, and the council is looking for more revenue sources.  Portlandcoliseum And one of the councilors has lofted an idea that some other cities beset by under-used mega-athletic complexes might want to seize upon: sell the Portland Coliseum for to a developer who will put affordable housing in its place.

 

 

 

  • As we’ve noted before, the nationwide initiative to affirmatively further fair housing calls for affordable housing development (at least a good share of it) in low-poverty, “high-opportunity” areas. A country club would seem to fit that description, at least generically. So we were interested to learn that the Planning Board in Mahwah, N.J., recently approved the redevelopment of a country club there for affordable housing.

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Before you get too excited, though, you should know about the downside: Much of the land is contaminated from years of pesticide spraying, and the cost of remediation (which includes removal of hundreds of trees) contributed to a reduction in development’s affordable capacity: down from 350 multi-family units to less than 100 single family homes.

  • Uber will deliver $1 million to Oakland’s affordable housing fund for the privilege of turning a former Sears building into an office space. oaklanduberThe deal was prompted partly by fears that Uber’s corporate arrival, with an anticipated 3,000 employees, would lead to gentrification and even higher housing prices.

 

  • Attention, City Market, Hunger Mountain, et al: A food co-op in affordability-challenged Asheville, N.C., is contemplating adding affordable housing to its expansion plans, which also (and less intriguingly) include enlarging its existing store, parking lot and office space. ashevillecoop

 

 

 

 

  • Speaking of parking, the Berkeley City Council has voted to target underused parking-lot space for affordable housing development. Berkeleyparkinglot2 Council members were reminded at the meeting that the average cost of a 1 bed-room apartment is $1,400 a month, and that’s under rent control! The average cost of an apartment not under rent control? $3,256 a month.

Not bad, could be better: AARP’s take on BTV’s ‘livability’

A willingness to consider home-sharing is among the key findings of a new AARP survey of 500 Burlington residents age 45 and older.

Burlington2When asked if they would be open to a home-sharing arrangement with a person who could provide services in order for them to continue living in the home, 56 percent of the respondents said yes. That was up from 36 percent in an AARP survey nine years ago.

The new response suggests a pent-up demand for more accessory dwelling units on properties where older Burlingtonians want to age in place — which most respondents clearly wish to do. Seventy-nine percent “strongly agreed” when asked about their desire to remain in their current home, and 80 percent rated Burlington as a good or excellent place for older people to live.

The home-sharing finding suggests that current services, mentioned in a previous post, are undersubscribed. It also points to a need for a supportive regulatory climate for accessory dwelling units, which are, after all, an important piece in the chronic puzzle of how to come up with more affordable housing.

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Another housing finding of note: Asked their opinion about building moderate- to low-income housing units in vacant lots in Burlington, 67 percent responded favorably, with 32 percent opposed. These numbers might have been slightly higher/lower is the question had used the contemporary term of choice, “affordable housing,” which has a nicer ring but which is, we have to admit, something of a euphemism.

Asked for their concerns about what might make it difficult to age in place, “high cost of living” topped the list, but it remains unclear which kinds of costs, specifically, are at issue.

Besides housing, transportation and “community engagement” were spheres covered by the telephone survey, which comprised 20-minute telephone interviews of randomly selected people. The margin of error was 4 percent. To see the full survey, “The Path to Livability: A Citizen Survey of Burlington, Vermont,” click here.

A presentation of the survey results by researcher Joanne Binette was made in AARP’s Burlington office to an audience of about two dozen people, among them housing and transportation specialists.

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Older people in Burlington get around in multiple ways. Driving is still the main way (83 percent), but these people also walk (68 percent) and bike (41 percent) or take the bus (27 percent) at least some of the time.

Generally, they find it easy to get around even if they couldn’t drive (66 percent). The main drawback to bus service, they said, was the lack of weekend or evening service. (One set of bus concerns relates to schedules and routes, another to bus stops and access to them.)

Fifty-fiBurlington7ve percent said they would bicycle if conditions for cyclists were better.

But are the streets safe? Apparently they’re more so for bicyclists (51 percent said streets are safe for cyclists) than for people with disabilities (41 percent), older people (36 percent) or children (33 percent) or pedestrians (27 percent).

Respondents had opinions on improving sidewalks and bus service, but appeared to be relatively satisfied with educational and social activities available to them in Burlington.

 

 

Sleeper issue snoozes on

cnbcdebateWe’ve read through the transcripts of the two GOP-presidential-candidate debates held on CNBC last night, in order that — to steal one of Gail Collins’ recurrent lines — you don’t have to do it.

The two debates, of course, featured the “undercard,” with four candidates, and the “main card,” with 10.

In nearly four hours of discussion, the word “housing” was uttered once. That was when Rand Paul lambasted the Federal Reserve Board for, among other alleged malfeasances, having “caused the housing boom and the crisis…”

The candidates had nothing to say — nor were they asked by their CNBC interlocutors — about the housing unaffordability that afflicts millions of Americans, or about persistent residential segregation by race and income. And they had virtually nothing to say about the bubble-burst that ushered in the Great Recession. Maybe that’s partly because the bubble was fed by the kind of deregulation that small-government proponents are fond of promoting.

True, six of these candidates had been given brief opportunities to hold forth at a daylong “housing summit” in New Hampshire that we noted last week (here’s yet another account of that event, by the way), but it seems unlikely they were each talked out after that experience. Perhaps they, their fellow contenders, and the CNBC panel all agree with Chris Christie’s comment at the summit that housing is an unsexy issue that “kind of depresses people.”

On the other hand, the candidates talked a lot last night about other things they presumably think are depressing, such as ”big government” and taxes. One might have expected that housing could get some attention in a debate that was supposed to focus on economic matters.

Perhaps the candidates believe that their various plans for shrinking government and “growing” the economy will jump-start the private market to spur housing development, raise incomes of working families, and take care of the affordable housing problem. If so, it would be nice if they’d explain in some detail how that will work.

It would be even nicer if reporters would start making them talk about it.

 

Affordability with an expiration date

expireIf we’re going to address the housing-affordability shortage, two things have to happen. The first is obvious: more affordable units have to be built or developed. The second is less obvious: For the affordable units that already exist, insufficient as they are, affordability has to be preserved.

Preservation is necessary because affordability typically derives from public subsidies, such has low income housing tax credits, that expire – after 15 years, in the case of LIHTC. As the expiration nears, a private owner might well be tempted to convert the units to market rate or to sell to a new owner who will have no affordability restrictions. Such a sale might be particularly tempting in hot real estate markets.

A wave of coming expirations across the country prompted this ominous Blooomberg headline last week, “A lot of cheap housing is about to get very expensive.” The story drew from an Urban Institute blog post on a review of 1.2 million project-based rental assistance units around the country that found about one-third were at risk of losing their affordability status in the next couple of years. The Urban Institute researchers recommended that local preservationists (such as housing non-profits and land trusts) focus their efforts on units in “high-opportunity” or low-poverty areas, where owners’ temptation to convert to market rates might be particularly strong.

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Vermont, mercifully, has benefited from a concerted preservation effort since the late ‘80s – a combined initiative of state agencies (Vermont Housing Finance Agency and Vermont Housing & Conservation Board) that marshal state and federal dollars to provide and extend subsidies, and non-profit organizations, such as land trusts, that step in to acquire properties before they disappear from affordability ranks.

A survey last year turned up 822 units in privately owned apartments in Vermont with subsidies due to expire before 2020. An additional 1,649 units controlled by non-profits were found to be eligible for new investments, such as capital improvements or subsidy-extensions, before 2020.

Whether Vermont will be able to maintain its historically high rate of preservation for these units will depend, in large part, on the availability of public funds to underwrite the needed subsidies and investments, and the outlook for that, at both state and federal levels, is dubious.

burlingtonapt

And even if Vermont could preserve the affordability in perpetuity of all the current affordable units, there aren’t anywhere near enough of them to meet the demand. Many more affordable units have to be developed, and more public money will be necessary for that, too. That’s money that won’t be available until political leaders make housing a priority.

 

California’s sideshow

Nowhere, seemingly, is the U.S. housing crisis more acute than in California.

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So you might suppose that here, in unassuming, modestly-overpriced Vermont, we can safely ignore what’s unfolding in California. To the contrary, it does make sense to pay some attention, for these reasons:

 

  • California social trends and public policies have a way of diffusing through the rest of the country. Not only that, middle-class Californians, in exodus because they’ve been priced out of the housing market, are moving in droves to other parts of the country and effectively bidding up housing prices in the places where they relocate.
  •  Sundry housing-affordability initiatives in California might give us some ideas about what to do here. San Francisco has a Nov. 3 election with a ballot full of affordable housing measures. Redwood City, to the south, just approved an affordable-housing impact fee over developers’ objections. People in L.A. are looking into the prospects for land trusts, something Vermonters already know a fair amount about. And as we’ve mentioned before, school districts are facilitating workforce-housing developments merely to attract and retain teachers.
  •  California generates much of what we consume here as mass-media entertainment, so we should be aware of the social context.
  •  Unavoidably, the part of entertainment value in what we’re hearing about the extraordinary California housing market, especially the one in the Bay Area, is in the form of Schadenfreude. Apparently, “there goes the neighborhood” applies when Apple employees start moving in.

Any dreams you have of moving out there should be dispelled by this short film, “Million Dollar Shack,”

a middle-class lament is filled with tales of egregiously over-priced properties, skyrocketing rents, absentee overseas investors, etc.

 

A digital-age summit in the oral tradition

The J. Ronald Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America’s Families held a daylong “housing summit” Friday attended by assorted luminaries and seven presidential candidates (six Republicans and one Democrat).

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No doubt you’re wondering what they said. You’re probably also wondering about J. Ronald Terwilliger. He is, among other things, a developer of rental apartments in Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville and Raleigh/Durham. He established the foundation last year, the foundation’s website informs us, “to recalibrate federal housing policy to more effectively address our nation’s critical affordable housing challenges and to meet the housing needs of future generations.” The foundation’s five-member executive board, besides Terwiller, comprises former senator Scott Brown, former congressman Rick Lazio, former HUD secretary Henry Cisneros, and Harvard Business School real-estate lecturer Nic Retsinas.

Besides the candidates, who were each allotted about a half-hour in a conversation format, the event featured several panel discussions, including one on “Accessing Private Capital to Build Affordable Housing.”

Fine, so what was said of substance? Don’t ask the J. Ronald Terwilliger Foundation. No transcript was made of the proceedings. For some reason, perhaps because it’s relatively new, the foundation didn’t take any steps to “seize the narrative” of its own event. The only record of the summit is in a spotty collection of news stories and snarky commentaries.

Chris Christie got a fair amount of attention, in a Boston Globe story and a harshly critical Times blog post, but also for his Twitter-worthy remark that housing doesn’t get a lot of notice in the presidential campaign “because it’s not the sexiest issue in the world to talk about, and it kind of depresses people.”

The most comprehensive account we’ve found was an article on a TV station’s website. The Republicans (who also included Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul and George Pataki) acknowledged that many Americans have an affordability problem, but some tried to link that to federal regulation. The lone Democrat, Martin O’Malley, called for doubling funding for the low income housing tax credit program and Community Development Block Grants.

But we’re not going to attempt a synopsis. You’ll just have to be satisfied with the summaries you get at places like Real Estate News or Forbes or NH1 TV news, or a video clip of Huckabee, on base guitar, backing Scott Brown’s daughter, the singer. Good luck finding any account of the panel discussions.

 

Stuck in the middle

Couple with daughter together in front yard
 

Middle-class financial struggles have occupied the public discourse for some time, but wouldn’t you know, we’re starting to hear more about housing unaffordability as a stresser for this beleaguered population segment.

The annual “State of the Nation’s Housing” report from Harvard took note this summer:

While long a condition of low-income households, cost burdens are spreading rapidly among moderate-income households. The cost-burdened share of renters with incomes in the $30,000–45,000 range rose 7 percentage points between 2003 and 2013, to 45 percent. The increase for renters earn­ing $45,000–75,000 was almost as large at 6 percentage points, affecting one in five of these households. On average, in the ten highest-cost metros—including Boston, Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco—three-quarters of renters earning $30,000–45,000 and just under half of those earning $45,000–75,000 had disproportionately high housing costs.”

Granted, much of the news about middle-class housing unaffordability is coming out of the big cities – places where “middle income” is construed to reach far above Vermont standards. For example, Cambridge, Mass., is taking steps to reserve a share of “affordable” housing in a new Kendall Square building for families with incomes in the low six figures! San Francisco is also considering measures that would expand affordable housing eligibility and help out renters in the $100,000 to $140,000 bracket. And Portland, Ore., where the “housing emergency” is apparently wide-ranging, is looking at a form of inclusionary zoning that make apartments available to people making 100 120 percent of the median income (Up to $96,875 for a family of four).

Perhaps it’s a testament to the severity of the housing crisis around the country, and/or to the fragility of the middle-income stratum, that the terms “middle class” and “subsidy” are suddenly being spoken in the same breath.

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Here’s the thing: To qualify for most subsidized housing, applicants can’t earn more than 80 percent of the local median income. Where does that leave people who draw an average salary, or perhaps a little more? Perhaps in a place where they can’t readily afford housing but can’t get any help, either. How many such people there are in Vermont is unclear; plenty, no doubt.

(Note: Middle-income earners are not beneficiaries of Burlington’s inclusionary zoning ordinance, which aims to provide affordable rentals for people earning up to 65 percent of the median; and for sale, up to 75 percent.)

For an illustrative display of how housing costs compare to standard incomes, the National Housing Conference’s interactive “Paycheck to Paycheck” shows bar graphs for each of the nation’s metro areas – and just one in Vermont, Burlington/South Burlington. One graph compares salaries to the pay needed to afford a median-priced home; another does the same thing for 1- and 2-BR apartments at HUD’s “fair market rent.”

Below are the charts for 10 occupations that might be considered to be middle class. As you can see, eight of the 10 would be hard pressed to afford purchase of an average home in Burlington:

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They do a little better in the rental market, but still, six of 10 can’t comfortably afford a two-bedroom apartment in Burlington:

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NJ’s lessons for VT

The Times’ Sunday editorial was a ringing endorsement of affirmatively furthering fair housing as put into practice in Mount Laurel, N.J. Mount Laurel, of course, was the epicenter of a fair housing lawsuit that resulted in state supreme court rulings in 1975 and 1983 known as the Mount Laurel Doctrine.

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Essentially, the doctrine held that every town must make room for people of all incomes and can’t legitimately exclude low or moderate income people through restricting planning and zoning policies. The Fair Share Housing Center, a primary litigant in the case that led to the Ethel Lawrence Homes in Mount Laurel that’s lauded by the editorial, calls it “one of the most significant civil rights cases in the United States since Brown v. Board of Education (1954).”

That statement might sound self-serving, but it has some credence, given that other states all over the country – including Vermont – have at least paid lip service to this principle. (For a quick summary of the Doctrine and how it resonates in Vermont, check out our previous blog post on this.

One thing that was missing from the editorial was any invocation of the incisive language in the New Jersey justices’ rulings. Like this, from Mount Laurel I:

“By way of summary, what we have said comes down to this. As a developing municipality, Mount Laurel must, by its land use regulations, make realistically possible the opportunity for an appropriate variety and choice of housing for all categories of people who may desire to live there, of course including those of low and moderate income. It must permit multi-family housing, without bedroom or similar restrictions, as well as small dwellings on very small lots, low cost housing of other types and, in general, high density zoning, without artificial and unjustifiable minimum requirements as to lot size, building size and the like, to meet the full panoply of these needs. Certainly when a municipality zones for industry and commerce for local tax benefit purposes, it without question must zone to permit adequate housing within the means of the employees involved in such uses…” (emphasis added)

Those guidelines are as apt today as when that opinion was written, in 1975 – 40 years ago!

Another thing missing from the editorial was anything more than a passing reference to complexities and controversies that attended efforts to implement the doctrine in municipalities across the state. It’s a long and tangled story, and while it’s true as the Times intones that “some local officials are working diligently to turn back the clock…” and that “Gov. Chris Christie and his allies in some of the state’s wealthy towns would like nothing more than to kill this remedy…” there is an added complication in many communities, and this one has resonance in Vermont, too.

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Some of the challenges New Jersey’ Sussex County faces in providing more affordable housing, according to this New Jersey Herald account, may sound familiar here:

“ ….a shortfall of utilities — sewer, water, electric — to accommodate more housing and population; and a lack of practical public transportation in the area that limits the ability for low- and moderate-income people to get to decent-paying jobs.

“But the most glaring problem is that with the population declining and the economy volatile, the county is not an ideal place for developers to invest.”